CoronaSim.eu

The population of the selected area/country. The population data is internally stored as sum of persons in 5-year wide age groups, which are linearly interpolated giving an approximate number of persons per year of age. The population data is from 2019.

Some countries are missing due to lack of source data, which is also the reason why the total world population is not 100% correct.

References:
- United Nations (https://population.un.org/wpp/)

The calculated generic infection fatality rate (IFR) for each country, assuming a fully unprotected population. The calculation uses data from a research report on the Bergamo infection (see reference), as one of the most infected areas which has been studied thoroughly. The infection rates from Bergamo are then applied to the specific age distribution of each country to calculate these countries' individual overall IFRs.

As of 13 Sep 2020, the report's IFR ranges are linearly interpolated into individual IFR rates for each year of age.

As of 1 Oct 2020, the infection rates from Bergamo are adjusted to compensate for the specific situation that arose in Bergamo. See the News section below.

References:
- How deadly is COVID-19? A rigorous analysis of excess mortality and age-dependent fatality rates in Italy ( https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.15.20067074v3.full.pdf )

Health system quality adjusted IFR. See the News section below.

The estimated, approximated theoretical max number of fatalities for each country. The calculation uses the linear interpolation of the healthcare system quality adjusted IFRs, and apply these to each country's population, giving the total number of fatalities for each country. This is as if the whole population got the virus once. (See report mentioned under 'IFR'.)

The estimated number of fatalities given that the virus spreads until the population has gained enough immunity until the virus more or less 'burns out' by itself. The calculation assumes that this happens when around 65% of the population has been infected. This number seems to be in line with reports on immunity or protection in heavily infected areas like Bergamo.

This assumes a limited infection period without considering possible reinfections.

The estimated percentage of calculated fatalities below 70 years for each country, taking each country's age distribution into account.

The estimated percentage of calculated fatalities below 50 years for each country, taking each country's age distribution into account.

The estimated percentage of calculated fatalities below 30 years for each country, taking each country's age distribution into account.

The calculated average age of the fatalities in each country.

The calculated median age of the fatalities in each country.

Years of potential life lost is the sum of the estimated remaining life years for the fatalities in each country. (See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Years_of_potential_life_lost .) The calculation uses the assumed number of remaining life years for each death, reduced somewhat due to the fact that approx. 98% of all fatalities has at least one comorbidity, and approx. 75% of all fatalities have at least two comorbidities, which would reduce their number of potential live years compared to the average for that age group.

This estimation needs to be improved further. At present it is calibrated and age-adjusted with figures on estimated reduced YPLL for diabetes patients in Canada (reference 2) for the 23% having one comorbidity, and that number squared for the 75% that have two comorbidities.

References:
- WHO - Life tables ( https://apps.who.int/gho/data/node.main.LIFECOUNTRY?lang=en )
- Government of Canada - Chapter 2: Diabetes in Canada: Facts and figures from a public health perspective – Health impact ( https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/chronic-diseases/reports-publications/diabetes/diabetes-canada-facts-figures-a-public-health-perspective/chapter-2.html )

The calculated, average number of potential years of life lost per fatality.

Number of reported fatalities by Our World in Data. Previously, ECDC were used, but they stopped reporting daily in mid-December 2020.

References:
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control ( https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide )
- https://ourworldindata.org

This is the estimated actual number of fatalities, taking into account that not all actual fatalities are correctly accredited to COVID-19. This assumption is based on research from the Italian infections, which found that a large portion of the excess deaths might not have been correctly assigned as COVID-19 deaths. This effect seems to be highly age dependent, i.e. the older the subject is, the higher the chance is that the death is not identied as being due to COVID-19. In the oldest age group, one report (see reference) found that the number of excess deaths that were not accredited to COVID-19 were close to equal to the number of identified deaths. In this age group, the number of fatalities were underestimated by 100%.

As of 22 Nov 2020 this calculation was improved and updated. See News section.

The current version of the calculation does not take into account that:

- Wrong reporting on purpose by some authorities
- Different reporting practices in various countries (Belgium is handled specifically).
- The quality of each country's healthcare system and how it affects reporting is very uncertain
- The percentage of missed identification correlates to the age of the subject

References:
- How deadly is COVID-19? A rigorous analysis of excess mortality and age-dependent fatality rates in Italy ( https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.15.20067074v3.full.pdf )
- Estimation of excess mortality and life expectancy in the major epicenters of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy ( https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.29.20084335v3.full.pdf )
- Temporal dynamics in total excess mortality and COVID-19 deaths in Italian cities ( https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-020-09335-8 )
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control ( https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide )

The estimated number of infections that is or has been infected with the virus in each country. This is based on the live calculation of the time-dependent IFR and the estimated number of actual COVID-19 fatalities. However, for the world population entry, the number is calculated as the total of the countries in the table. Hence, the number is sligtly lower than when calculated based on the world's generic IFR since some few countries are missing. Infections can happen several times for the same individual, meaning that this figure can grow above the population in the longer run.

The number of vaccine dose injections. Most vaccines require two injections, i.e. 2 doses are required.

References:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

How far the vaccinaiton process has come compared to the total population.

The number persons currently protected by immunity, either by vaccinaiton or a recent infection. Initial immunity that can be present in the population is not considered. It assumes a distribution of the virus propotional to the age distribution.

The current percentage of immunity or protection in the population compared to the immunity level needed for herd immunity. Initial immunity that can be present in the population is not considered.

The current herd immunity level of the population. See the News section for more details.

The current population fatality rate, i.e. how many percent of the population who have died from covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic.

The current, forward-looking IFR rate of the population. See the News sections for more details.